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Data shows that the problem with Medicare is that It is too successful

Excellent U.S. Census Bureau Data Visualization Tool brings to Life why the Baby-Boom Generation has been periodically been such a contributor to up-tick in Unemployment, Inflation, Growth and finally in Medicare spending. It is interesting that 1965 Marks the End of Baby-Boom generation and Marks the Start of Medicare generation. Let’s Assume U.S Population Hit 200 Million sometime before 1969 (President Lyndon Johnson celebrated the birth of the baby that was estimated to be the 200th million of the U.S) and let’s observe that U.S population was estimated at 281 million by Years 2000. We can extrapolate that between years 1965-2000 which Medicare was introduced 65 and Older Population Age Group has nearly tripled but in the same period of time of the U.S population only grew by an estimated 47%. Also Note that between 1945 and 1964 U.S population grew by 35% while the 65 and Older Age Group nearly doubled.

U.S Monthly Unemployment provided by Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Year

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Annual

1960

5.2

4.8

5.4

5.2

5.1

5.4

5.5

5.6

5.5

6.1

6.1

6.6

1961

6.6

6.9

6.9

7.0

7.1

6.9

7.0

6.6

6.7

6.5

6.1

6.0

1962

5.8

5.5

5.6

5.6

5.5

5.5

5.4

5.7

5.6

5.4

5.7

5.5

1963

5.7

5.9

5.7

5.7

5.9

5.6

5.6

5.4

5.5

5.5

5.7

5.5

1964

5.6

5.4

5.4

5.3

5.1

5.2

4.9

5.0

5.1

5.1

4.8

5.0

1965

4.9

5.1

4.7

4.8

4.6

4.6

4.4

4.4

4.3

4.2

4.1

4.0

1966

4.0

3.8

3.8

3.8

3.9

3.8

3.8

3.8

3.7

3.7

3.6

3.8

1967

3.9

3.8

3.8

3.8

3.8

3.9

3.8

3.8

3.8

4.0

3.9

3.8

1968

3.7

3.8

3.7

3.5

3.5

3.7

3.7

3.5

3.4

3.4

3.4

3.4

1969

3.4

3.4

3.4

3.4

3.4

3.5

3.5

3.5

3.7

3.7

3.5

3.5

1970

3.9

4.2

4.4

4.6

4.8

4.9

5.0

5.1

5.4

5.5

5.9

6.1

1971

5.9

5.9

6.0

5.9

5.9

5.9

6.0

6.1

6.0

5.8

6.0

6.0

1972

5.8

5.7

5.8

5.7

5.7

5.7

5.6

5.6

5.5

5.6

5.3

5.2

1973

4.9

5.0

4.9

5.0

4.9

4.9

4.8

4.8

4.8

4.6

4.8

4.9

1974

5.1

5.2

5.1

5.1

5.1

5.4

5.5

5.5

5.9

6.0

6.6

7.2

1975

8.1

8.1

8.6

8.8

9.0

8.8

8.6

8.4

8.4

8.4

8.3

8.2

1976

7.9

7.7

7.6

7.7

7.4

7.6

7.8

7.8

7.6

7.7

7.8

7.8

1977

7.5

7.6

7.4

7.2

7.0

7.2

6.9

7.0

6.8

6.8

6.8

6.4

1978

6.4

6.3

6.3

6.1

6.0

5.9

6.2

5.9

6.0

5.8

5.9

6.0

1979

5.9

5.9

5.8

5.8

5.6

5.7

5.7

6.0

5.9

6.0

5.9

6.0

1980

6.3

6.3

6.3

6.9

7.5

7.6

7.8

7.7

7.5

7.5

7.5

7.2

1981

7.5

7.4

7.4

7.2

7.5

7.5

7.2

7.4

7.6

7.9

8.3

8.5

1982

8.6

8.9

9.0

9.3

9.4

9.6

9.8

9.8

10.1

10.4

10.8

10.8

1983

10.4

10.4

10.3

10.2

10.1

10.1

9.4

9.5

9.2

8.8

8.5

8.3

1984

8.0

7.8

7.8

7.7

7.4

7.2

7.5

7.5

7.3

7.4

7.2

7.3

1985

7.3

7.2

7.2

7.3

7.2

7.4

7.4

7.1

7.1

7.1

7.0

7.0

1986

6.7

7.2

7.2

7.1

7.2

7.2

7.0

6.9

7.0

7.0

6.9

6.6

1987

6.6

6.6

6.6

6.3

6.3

6.2

6.1

6.0

5.9

6.0

5.8

5.7

1988

5.7

5.7

5.7

5.4

5.6

5.4

5.4

5.6

5.4

5.4

5.3

5.3

1989

5.4

5.2

5.0

5.2

5.2

5.3

5.2

5.2

5.3

5.3

5.4

5.4

1990

5.4

5.3

5.2

5.4

5.4

5.2

5.5

5.7

5.9

5.9

6.2

6.3

1991

6.4

6.6

6.8

6.7

6.9

6.9

6.8

6.9

6.9

7.0

7.0

7.3

1992

7.3

7.4

7.4

7.4

7.6

7.8

7.7

7.6

7.6

7.3

7.4

7.4

1993

7.3

7.1

7.0

7.1

7.1

7.0

6.9

6.8

6.7

6.8

6.6

6.5

1994

6.6

6.6

6.5

6.4

6.1

6.1

6.1

6.0

5.9

5.8

5.6

5.5

1995

5.6

5.4

5.4

5.8

5.6

5.6

5.7

5.7

5.6

5.5

5.6

5.6

1996

5.6

5.5

5.5

5.6

5.6

5.3

5.5

5.1

5.2

5.2

5.4

5.4

1997

5.3

5.2

5.2

5.1

4.9

5.0

4.9

4.8

4.9

4.7

4.6

4.7

1998

4.6

4.6

4.7

4.3

4.4

4.5

4.5

4.5

4.6

4.5

4.4

4.4

1999

4.3

4.4

4.2

4.3

4.2

4.3

4.3

4.2

4.2

4.1

4.1

4.0

2000

4.0

4.1

4.0

3.8

4.0

4.0

4.0

4.1

3.9

3.9

3.9

3.9

2001

4.2

4.2

4.3

4.4

4.3

4.5

4.6

4.9

5.0

5.3

5.5

5.7

2002

5.7

5.7

5.7

5.9

5.8

5.8

5.8

5.7

5.7

5.7

5.9

6.0

2003

5.8

5.9

5.9

6.0

6.1

6.3

6.2

6.1

6.1

6.0

5.8

5.7

2004

5.7

5.6

5.8

5.6

5.6

5.6

5.5

5.4

5.4

5.5

5.4

5.4

2005

5.3

5.4

5.2

5.2

5.1

5.0

5.0

4.9

5.0

5.0

5.0

4.9

2006

4.7

4.8

4.7

4.7

4.6

4.6

4.7

4.7

4.5

4.4

4.5

4.4

2007

4.6

4.5

4.4

4.5

4.4

4.6

4.7

4.6

4.7

4.7

4.7

5.0

2008

5.0

4.9

5.1

5.0

5.4

5.6

5.8

6.1

6.1

6.5

6.8

7.3

2009

7.8

8.3

8.7

9.0

9.4

9.5

9.5

9.6

9.8

10.0

9.9

9.9

2010

9.8

9.8

9.9

9.9

9.6

9.4

9.5

9.5

9.5

9.5

9.8

9.3

2011

9.1

9.0

8.9

9.0

9.0

9.1

9.0

9.0

9.0

8.9

8.6

8.5

2012

8.3

8.3

8.2

8.1

8.2

8.2

8.2

8.1

7.8

7.9

7.8

7.8

2013

7.9

7.7

7.6

7.5

7.6

7.6

7.4

7.3

7.2

7.3


As you can see in the figure1 below: Up to 1964 the Under 5 Years old Age Group is the largest share of the population. In fact the Census Data Visualization Tool shows that every Ten years the Most populated Age Group Since 1964 has corresponded to the Baby boomers Growing up, Becoming Employed, thriving and finally going into retirement.

Figure 1: Showing Narrow Under-5 Age Group in 1964 as the broadest Age Group in U.S

Starting 1965 Under 5 Age group was no longer the fast growing Age demographic

Figure 2: Showing The Start of Post-World War II Baby Generation in 1946.

Starting 1946 Under 5 Age group Became the fast growing demographic in the U.S

Figure 3: Year 2000 was essentially the start Multi-decade gradual exit of Baby-Boomers from the active work force.

U.S Population Demographics show that baby boomers are the largest component of U.S population active workforce by Year 2000

Figure 4: Bureau of Labor Statistics Unemployment data dating to Back 1960.

BLS Charts shows U.S Unemployment reaches it's peak in 1983 When the last sets of Baby-boomers start entering the active workforce.

You might have noticed during 2013 government shutdown that many business entities complained about lack of government Data. In Fact the Data Compiled by BLS, U.S Census Bureau of Economic Analysis combined with Federal Reserve,Treasury, World Bank, IMF reports are the basis of many business projections. I wish there more tools that would bring these data pieces together in automated fashion in terms of Tables and Graphs and would generate analysis based on these historical data-sets.